Stock market rally - anyone in on this?

xmacro

Anyone else riding this high? Since November, this market has been on fire, and it's been a joy to ride. Kinda hard to say what it's gonna do next, given the Feds money printing, but I've been hearing the market fundamentals are solid, and though the market may slip when Bernanke turns the spigot off, the underlying earnings reports will continue to carry the market up

Either way, it's been fun to watch these past couple months. Hard to keep the dollar signs out of my head and stay clear eyed about the potential risks

beatnic

In the words of a popular market guru/news guy/analyst - This will end badly!

insomnniapb

beatnic:

In the words of a popular market guru/news guy/analyst - This will end badly!

I tend to agree. Hopefully not though!

raisindot

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high. We're going to start seeing drops in consumer and industrial spending as furloughed federal and state workers join the unemployment rolls and Big Defense stops developing and manufacturing expensive new weapons and lays off workers. Meanwhile the market will become increasingly volatile as those betting on growth with be competing with hedge funds who will be shorting stocks. I'd get out of any stock in a sector that depends on cyclical spending, like construction, defense and technology, and get into defensive industries like pharmacies, low-cost retailers, firearms, liquor and fast food.

phobicsquirrel

It's almost way too artificial. This will end badly, remember wallstreet is up to the old tricks of yesterday.

phobicsquirrel

raisindot:

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high. We're going to start seeing drops in consumer and industrial spending as furloughed federal and state workers join the unemployment rolls and Big Defense stops developing and manufacturing expensive new weapons and lays off workers. Meanwhile the market will become increasingly volatile as those betting on growth with be competing with hedge funds who will be shorting stocks. I'd get out of any stock in a sector that depends on cyclical spending, like construction, defense and technology, and get into defensive industries like pharmacies, low-cost retailers, firearms, liquor and fast food.

I should have put money into the firearms/bullet industry years ago. I should have known better... Always when a dem is in office!

fla-gypsy

Long term diversified portfolios always make money and weather the cyclical nature of the market. Trying to "play" the market is always a loser.

xmacro

^ +1 to that

I jumped in the market in December; it's been an amazing ride since. My entire portfolio is up almost 10% in 3 months.

Buy quality stocks and let them ride long term. Looking back on the market for the past 5, 10, 15, 100 years, there's only one trend - it's always gone up. Hell, since 2009, the market's increased by 110%

raisindot:

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high.

Some, but not all. I read somewhere that the average P/E ration is about 14, which is about 20% lower than it was in 2007, so there may be plenty of room for this bull market to yet run. I heard on Fox Business that if we adjusted for inflation, the market would have to reach something like 15,600 to really recover from the 2009 bottom, so there's still plenty of room for an upward tick.

Amos Umwhat

phobicsquirrel:

It's almost way too artificial. This will end badly, remember wallstreet is up to the old tricks of yesterday.

No need to fear, a Bailout is near.....:/

raisindot

xmacro:

raisindot:

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high. Hell, since 2009, the market's increased by 110%

Sir, with all due respect, if you're going to quote me, please quote what I actually SAID. I didn't say ANYTHING about the market increasing by 110% in my post.

raisindot

phobicsquirrel:

raisindot:

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high. We're going to start seeing drops in consumer and industrial spending as furloughed federal and state workers join the unemployment rolls and Big Defense stops developing and manufacturing expensive new weapons and lays off workers. Meanwhile the market will become increasingly volatile as those betting on growth with be competing with hedge funds who will be shorting stocks. I'd get out of any stock in a sector that depends on cyclical spending, like construction, defense and technology, and get into defensive industries like pharmacies, low-cost retailers, firearms, liquor and fast food.

I should have put money into the firearms/bullet industry years ago. I should have known better... Always when a dem is in office!

As much as I hate guns in general, I agree with you. In terms of pure mercenary investing, I really should have loaded up on firearms and ammunition stocks right after the Virginia Tech shootings. My guess is that the market has probably priced these at their peak right now.

xmacro

raisindot:

xmacro:

raisindot:

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high. Hell, since 2009, the market's increased by 110%

Sir, with all due respect, if you're going to quote me, please quote what I actually SAID. I didn't say ANYTHING about the market increasing by 110% in my post.

Whoops, my bad on that - I meant to post that bit about 110% in my own post; I tried to edit my post with that line, but I guess I put it inside the quote brackets instead of outside. Sorry about that

No offense meant at all; my bad if anyone got the wrong impression. I'll fix the post now

jgibv

phobicsquirrel:

It's almost way too artificial. This will end badly, remember wallstreet is up to the old tricks of yesterday.

Agreed.
What's the basis for this ?? ... the fed's "easy-money" is the only thing propping up the market right now....

Take away the Fed's support and if you look at all of the other major economic indicators, they indicate that the market should be doing the exact opposite ....

Just look at the numbers .... the last time the Dow was this high was in Oct 2007 right before the last "crash" ....

--- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
--- Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
--- GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
--- Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
--- Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
--- Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
--- US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
--- US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
--- Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
--- US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
--- Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
--- Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
--- S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
--- VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
--- 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
--- USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
--- EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
--- Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
--- NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

raisindot:

If you haven't gptten into it by now, don't bother. P/E multiples on many stocks are way too high. We're going to start seeing drops in consumer and industrial spending as furloughed federal and state workers join the unemployment rolls and Big Defense stops developing and manufacturing expensive new weapons and lays off workers. Meanwhile the market will become increasingly volatile as those betting on growth with be competing with hedge funds who will be shorting stocks. I'd get out of any stock in a sector that depends on cyclical spending, like construction, defense and technology, and get into defensive industries like pharmacies, low-cost retailers, firearms, liquor and fast food.

YES --- in Q3 2012, Warren Buffett sold about 95% of his 10 million shares of Johnson & Johnson stock --- and he dumped about 7 million shares of Proctor and Gamble as well .... why's that matter?
Think about what these companies make and whether or not they produce products that people will go without, if they have to ....
P&G --- consumer goods! With their main product segments --- Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, Snacks & Pet Care, Fabric Care & Home Care, Baby Care & Family Home Care...
J&J --- medical devices, pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods

But what did Warren Buffett just invest a whole bunch of $$ into ---- Heinz! Why? Because they make food and people always have to eat ......

xmacro

jgibv:

But what did Warren Buffett just invest a whole bunch of $$ into ---- Heinz! Why? Because they make food and people always have to eat ......

Warren Buffet hasn't been doing so well in the market though; his BRK stock has been underperforming the market for the past 5 years. He takes a ton of risks with his acquisitions, and most of them haven't been paying off at all

webmost

jgibv:

Just look at the numbers .... the last time the Dow was this high was in Oct 2007 right before the last "crash" ....

--- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
--- Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
--- GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
--- Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
--- Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
--- Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
--- US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
--- US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
--- Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
--- US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
--- Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
--- Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
--- S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
--- VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
--- 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
--- USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
--- EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
--- Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
--- NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

Wow. That's an awesome array of numbers.

jgibv

webmost:

Wow. That's an awesome array of numbers.

Source here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/last-time-dow-was-here

Not what I wanted to post .... but it'll do for now .... I was reading an article the other day that had them all laid out in a nice, "easy-to-see" graph. Thought I had bookmarked it but guess not, still trying to find it ... will update this if I do.

Big T smokes

I wanna learnz stocks n stuff