China has become increasingly more capitalist in recent years and thus their economy has grown exponentially, most of western europe has become increasingly more socialist and they are in a deeper depression than we. How can anyone honestly believe socialism works? Its never proven beneficial anywhere. Enough of my rant ...
Not to put too fine a point on it, maddy, but did you just mention China in a challenge to the notion that socialism and prosperity can co-exist? I mean, they're not just socialist, they're full-on, old-school communist, and yet their economy is going gangbusters, they're buying our bankrupt banks, and we're having to borrow trillions of dollars from them to finance our tax cuts and wars.
Now, one might say that China is growing because they are moving toward capitalism. And I think that's probably right. The fact remains, however, that whatever direction they're moving, they are still way, way communist, and way, way prospering.
Also, as far as Western Europe, the Scandinavian countries are very "social democratic," as the phrase goes, yet their standard of living is higher than ours, and they are happier with their lives.
Also did everyone here miss Obama's promise to push SCHIP and its $10/cigar tax through within his first 3 months in office?
I didn't, but honestly, I'm okay with it. Poor kids need health care a lot more than I need cigars. I realize that means I probably should be donating my money to a private charity that does that, instead of buying cigars with it. But I'm not (nor are any of us). Maybe that's because I'm morally weak. Maybe it's because it just doesn't occur to me.
Whatever the reason, the fact remains that I readily recognize that poor kids need health care a lot more than I need cigars. When I recognize that fact, it's kinda hard for me to complain about a gov't policy that shifts money that direction.
His father, George H.W. Bush, was known for the same thing.
Actually, H.W. was known for building international support and a huge international coalition, including several Arab/Muslim nations, before invading. If the current man had followed the old man's realism on foreign policy, we'd be much better off.
(For the record, and just to throw everybody for a loop, I voted for G.H.W. Bush. Reagan, too.)
If McCain had won there would have been people who would have been disappointed... People who felt our economy was in for a hard stretch... etc...
If this was true explain to me how our stock market immediately fell, even further, upon the anouncement of Obama's win after it had been recovering slowly in recent days. We are in for hard times no matter who had won but ...
C'mon Maddy...given your logic, if Obama is responsible for the Stock Markets' downturn in the last few days? Who is responsible for the whole economy tanking in the last couple of months? The markets have been responding to negative GDP and job loss / creation reports, I don't see how you tie that to Obama ?
Its quite easy to tie them together. I'm not blaming Obama for the economy tanking, there are plenty of people to blame for that. But the fact that the NYSE drops 500(this coming after it had been slowly climbing) points the day after a president-elect is named, who has been adament about redistributing wealth, cutting defense spending and raising taxes on businesses, I don't think its much of a stretch to say that his being elected caused the drop that day. We all know how sensitive the stock market is to any kind of news.
Laker no offense meant here as I'm sure you ove your country but I love mine. I don't want to be Canada, England or France. We're the wealthiest country in the world for a reason and its not because we followed other countries into socialism. Show me one country that has benefited from increased socialist policy and redistribution of wealth. Just one. China has become increasingly more capitalist in recent years and thus their economy has grown exponentially, most of western europe has become increasingly more socialist and they are in a deeper depression than we. How can anyone honestly believe socialism works? Its never proven beneficial anywhere. Enough of my rant ...
Maddy, I don't know where in my post you got that I was trying to push Canada or say anything which was comparing Canada. Maybe you should re-read? I was answering a point you made.
People here who are still too raw from the election result are doing lots of talking in extremes (guess it makes them feel better?)so I'll just bow out. Not worth hard feelings, as not one person here no matter where they are from can change a damn thing in regard to the election result's.
Also did everyone here miss Obama's promise to push SCHIP and its $10/cigar tax through within his first 3 months in office?
I didn't, but honestly, I'm okay with it. Poor kids need health care a lot more than I need cigars. I realize that means I probably should be donating my money to a private charity that does that, instead of buying cigars with it. But I'm not (nor are any of us). Maybe that's because I'm morally weak. Maybe it's because it just doesn't occur to me.
Whatever the reason, the fact remains that I readily recognize that poor kids need health care a lot more than I need cigars. When I recognize that fact, it's kinda hard for me to complain about a gov't policy that shifts money that direction.
!!! WTF ? really? you gotta be kiddin. $10 a stick!! here is what will happen. tobacco prices will soar in the US. people will stop buying tobacco and then the kids dont get the money for SCHIP anyway. so then we would have TWO problems: kids without health care and Us without cigars.
i mean seriously... is a 5 vegas series A really a $16 stick? Its good but not $16 worth of good. I woulndt buy it at that price, and neither will anyone else. its an artificially high price.
and if we have universal health care why would we need SCHIP anyway?
I agree, this cigar tax is just stupid. It's going to reduce tax revenue, ruin the cigar manufacturers, and ruin the cigar shops from the small local ones to major retailers like cigar.com. I guess I'll start having to make yearly trips to Canadia for my smokes. It's only a couple hours drive northwards. They've got lots of stores right on the border, I'm sure tobacconists will pop up left and right after this.
If McCain had won there would have been people who would have been disappointed... People who felt our economy was in for a hard stretch... etc...
If this was true explain to me how our stock market immediately fell, even further, upon the anouncement of Obama's win after it had been recovering slowly in recent days. We are in for hard times no matter who had won but ...
C'mon Maddy...given your logic, if Obama is responsible for the Stock Markets' downturn in the last few days? Who is responsible for the whole economy tanking in the last couple of months? The markets have been responding to negative GDP and job loss / creation reports, I don't see how you tie that to Obama ?
You stole the words out of my mouth Laker... WELL before the election was there even a SINGLE economist out there that DIDN'T say the market would be constantly fluxing for months? The up and down ride is expect and was expect... Further, as Laker pointed out, the opening day after the election was NOT ONLY just "returns day", it was also a day where many corporate reports were released which in my opinion are what REALLY affected the market...
I have NO DOUBT in my mind that the market would have reacted in exactly or at least very closely the same way even if McCain had been elected...
You'll see the market coming back up soon... and then no doubt it'll go back down, and so on and so on probably for the next year or so at LEAST...
!!! WTF ? really? you gotta be kiddin. $10 a stick!! here is what will happen. tobacco prices will soar in the US. people will stop buying tobacco and then the kids dont get the money for SCHIP anyway. so then we would have TWO problems: kids without health care and Us without cigars.
i mean seriously... is a 5 vegas series A really a $16 stick? Its good but not $16 worth of good. I woulndt buy it at that price, and neither will anyone else. its an artificially high price.
and if we have universal health care why would we need SCHIP anyway?
I gotta say I disagree Kuzi... Let me explain why...
As most? of you know I was a cigarette smoker for many years... (up until about 7 years ago or so)
I remember many times when there were talks of increased taxes on cigarettes... People were all in an uproar and everyone I knew that smoked talked about how they were gonna quit if it went through, etc...
None of them did... I remember when I was smoking cigarettes were like $1.25 - $1.50 a pack... When I quit I think it was around $2.25... Now they're what?? $4.50 or something ridiculous like that? And yet people still smoke every day... People still START smoking every day....
Granted theirs a certain level of "addiction" with cigarettes that isn't present in a cigar, but seriously...
Even if it DOES pass...
Even if it IS $10 per cigar...
Are you really telling me you'll give up smoking cigars forever? Once your current stock runs out you'll never buy anymore???
You might not like it, but you're probably not gonna quit...
Look at the tax rate on tobacco in CA... And yet people still buy cigars there every day...
I agree, this cigar tax is just stupid. It's going to reduce tax revenue, ruin the cigar manufacturers, and ruin the cigar shops from the small local ones to major retailers like cigar.com. I guess I'll start having to make yearly trips to Canadia for my smokes. It's only a couple hours drive northwards. They've got lots of stores right on the border, I'm sure tobacconists will pop up left and right after this.
BTW... Make no mistake... I'm not saying I AGREE with the tax... I don't... I'm just saying that if it DOES pass I honestly don't think it's going to cause a mass exodus of people quitting smoking cigars... I've heard that same story with so many other things in the past and the fact is it just doesn't happen...
Do you have any idea how many people I heard WAY back when gas was still like $1.70 a gallon and rising quickly saying that if gas ever went above $2 a gallon that they would stop driving and just start biking to work?
Know how many of them did? They STILL drive to work every day even when they were paying WELL over $4 a gallon...
I don't know why I'm always so surprised at all the people blowing smoke in a cigar forum. SCHIP proposed a (significant) tax increase on cigars, to be a (high - 50%?) percentage of the MSRP, WITH A CAP at $3/cigar... in other words, you wouldn't pay a $10/cigar tax. So, a $3 cigar would end up costing $4.50. A $5 cigar would cost $7.50. A $7 cigar would cost $10. A $30 cigar would cost $33.
Your current outlay is $0.05 per cigar, so at most you're looking at a tax hike of $2.95 per cigar. That's enough to make me reduce my purchasing, and probably stock up now and try agin But I agree with Urby that I don't object to it.
im not sure how many of you have had basic econimics classes.
its as simple as price VS demand. when the price goes UP on something the demand goes DOWN
and as far as cigarettes going up... I too used to smoke cigarettes. one of the reasons i quit when i did whas because there was a TAX HIKE on them and it wasnt worthit to me. yes people still smoke. yes people still start to smoke, but if you look at it in the long term, as taxes have been going up in the past few decades, the number of people smoking have gone down.
that and the "addiction" factor for cigars is very small. its a luxury item that most dont need. the price goes up and even more people dont buy them. will i give up cigars if the tax passes, probably not, but i will cut down VERY significantly. cigars are expensive enough as it is, and with my upcoming tax increase (thanks obama!) this is just a nother pile of BS that i have to deal with.
even you duty, said you will cut back on the amount of cigars you purchase. the phenomenon will be enough that they will not generate the revenue they thought they would... so they will raise the tax again to "make up for it"
it just doesnt seem to make any sense to raise the price of things via taxation in a time when everyone feels that things are "too expensive" to begin with.
To be clear, kuzi, I never claimed that the tax hike would not affect consumption. I think it would have a huge impact on the cigar industry. You'd lose a lot of the smaller brands, and you'd definitely see a huge reduction in the number of new cigar smokers. You'd also see a lot more people quit smoking cigars than quit smoking cigarettes.
Also, with respect to the arguments about gas prices, we have definitely seen the high prices affect driving habits. I cancelled a climbing trip this summer due to the gas crisis. I work from home 4 days per week now, and three of my team members work from home full time. Now, as gas prices have gone down, I am still reluctant to do much driving because I have grown accustomed to these new habits. This is the reason I posted that story about the demise of OPEC. Core demand has been forever impacted, even if gas prices come back down.
You would see a similar effect with cigars. There is a threshold for everything that, once crossed, it begins to change behavior. The curve is never as simple as they teach you in Econ 101, although that's a great place to start. It tends to be influenced by psychological thresholds (i.e. $4.00/gallon instead of $3.95), social trends, and the availability of alternatives. So if we apply that logic to the cigar tax, you'll clearly cross a large number of psychological thresholds (5 Vegas Classic Torpedo would now cost $7+), and the nationwide social trend is seeing a steady decrease in smoking. You'll likely see people turning to legal alternatives (liquor) and illegal alternatives (drugs).
One more thing... I also agree that a tobacco tax alone will not be sufficient to cover the costs of this program. This is not only due to short-term demand impact from higher taxes, but also due to the fact that the number of smokers in our country is declining. Basically, in order to sustain the costs of this program, we would need to encourage people to take up smoking and keep smoking. Obviously, the idea presents a bit of a conflict.
but because it is a luxury item the drop off of sales will be drastic and therefor the program will not make the expected money. this is a failure. it will not accomplish its stated goal of generating more revenue, it will only succeed in making cigars more expensive and driving some cigar companies and retailers out of business.
why support a program that will do no good and personally effect you and an industry that you love negatively?
The program will do a lot of good. People won't stop buying cigars. At my local shop, sales won't be drastically affected by this tax. Most of the people who go there will continue to purchase these luxury items, in the same quantity. If you look at the $3 cap on the tax, the guys at that shop won't feel such an enormous hit because most of them are already paying $15+ per stick. Now it will be $18+. These guys also pay up to $150/month for the privilege of smoking in the private lounge at the shop.
I am only saying that a tobacco tax alone will not be sufficient to fund this program. But I don't agree that we should abandon that tax altogether for that reason, and further destroy the budget for this program.
it will not accomplish its stated goal of generating more revenue
That is incorrect. Considering the current cap is 5 cents per cigar, and the new tax would be up to $3 per cigar, we would need to see a 98% drop in cigar sales in order to not make any revenue. I would say that's highly unrealistic. So how much do you expect cigar sales to drop? Let's say that cigar sales will drop drastically -- like 15%. We would still see an increase of 5,000% in the annual cigar tax revenue. I'd say that's pretty solid.
i bet it would be way more than a 15%. drop. maybe not 98% but a 15% drop in sales in any industry is fairly drastic. most industries would have many many closures, failures, fewer raises, and job cuts. and thats what this economy needs too.
at what point would you feel is "too much" of a tax per stick?
I think $3.00 per stick is too much, so I guess I would ask you to define "too much". I think $0.05 per stick is too little. So somewhere between those two I reach what I think is equitable. Probably something on the order of $1.00 per stick. If you're asking how much of a tax would get me to quit smoking cigars altogether, I'd say it'd probably be somewhere around $8-10/stick.
How many sticks per year of a reduction in sales do you think we'll see? 70%? If 70% fewer cigars are sold on an annual basis, we would still see a 1700% increase in annual tax revenue from cigars at $3/stick. I think it is unlikely we'd see anything greater than a 15% reduction in sales, but even at 25% we're still seeing an increase of 4400% in annual cigar tax revenue.
You stole the words out of my mouth Laker... WELL before the election was there even a SINGLE economist out there that DIDN'T say the market would be constantly fluxing for months? The up and down ride is expect and was expect... Further, as Laker pointed out, the opening day after the election was NOT ONLY just "returns day", it was also a day where many corporate reports were released which in my opinion are what REALLY affected the market...
I have NO DOUBT in my mind that the market would have reacted in exactly or at least very closely the same way even if McCain had been elected...
You'll see the market coming back up soon... and then no doubt it'll go back down, and so on and so on probably for the next year or so at LEAST...
To further emphasize this, look at the really decent gains the market made today DESPITE the news from GM and others... Surely if the market tanked due to Obama's election those same traders haven't "Forgotten" he was elected already...
No offense meant, guys, but it really is striking to me just how many things conservatives are afraid of. No matter what happens, somebody on the right is telling us we're right on the brink of disaster.
I think America is a good deal more durable than that. Besides, I just don't have the energy to be in siege mode all the time.
I gotta tell ya Urbs, I'm with ya on this one...
If McCain had won there would have been people who would have been disappointed... People who felt our wars would only continue to dredge on with no end in sight... People who felt our economy was in for a hard stretch... etc...
But in general, hey, despite some of his ideals being things others might not agree with, the bottom line is he would have done the best job he knows how...
But McCain didn't win... Obama did... and since the announcement I've heard more "End Of The World" talk than they probably did back in the middle ages! It's frankly ridiculous...
I don't know why I'm always so surprised at all the people blowing smoke in a cigar forum. SCHIP proposed a (significant) tax increase on cigars, to be a (high - 50%?) percentage of the MSRP, WITH A CAP at $3/cigar... in other words, you wouldn't pay a $10/cigar tax. So, a $3 cigar would end up costing $4.50. A $5 cigar would cost $7.50. A $7 cigar would cost $10. A $30 cigar would cost $33.
Your current outlay is $0.05 per cigar, so at most you're looking at a tax hike of $2.95 per cigar. That's enough to make me reduce my purchasing, and probably stock up now and try agin But I agree with Urby that I don't object to it.
See, this I can agree with. I freely admit I did no research on my own on this before freaking the hell out.
I don't know if a 50% hike immediately is a good idea, but they could certainly stand to raise the cap on it a bit
amazing. i dont get that mentality at all. in a time when it seems like everyone is complaining that we are paying too much for everything and that inflation is on the rise you guys are saying that artificially paying more for things is a good idea.
oh wait, its for the CHILDREN.... iduno...maybe if you wanna pay more taxes the government could set up some kind of account where people could pay extra and all of it would go for the children, maybe like a charity.
wait, hasnt that been done? yes it has. if i remember correctly, only one person paid $12 (or some other nominal amount) into it.
i just feel that the government already takes to damn much out of my check and too much in sales tax as it is. they dont need anymore.
i do have an idea about taxes that i wanna share with all of you. ill start a new thread about that soon. its an idea that i have heard tossed about and that i have modified a bit. It would never happen... but again, debate is fun.
I don't think it's a good idea, I just wouldn't mind quite so badly if it were a relatively small raise in taxes. I'd still be unhappy about it, but not enough to stop smoking.
Obama can't pass this thing on his own. We could try writing our senators about this. Maybe Ahnold would get involved, he likes his cigars too.
Comments
Now, one might say that China is growing because they are moving toward capitalism. And I think that's probably right. The fact remains, however, that whatever direction they're moving, they are still way, way communist, and way, way prospering.
Also, as far as Western Europe, the Scandinavian countries are very "social democratic," as the phrase goes, yet their standard of living is higher than ours, and they are happier with their lives.
Whatever the reason, the fact remains that I readily recognize that poor kids need health care a lot more than I need cigars. When I recognize that fact, it's kinda hard for me to complain about a gov't policy that shifts money that direction.
(For the record, and just to throw everybody for a loop, I voted for G.H.W. Bush. Reagan, too.)
Maddy, I don't know where in my post you got that I was trying to push Canada or say anything which was comparing Canada. Maybe you should re-read? I was answering a point you made.
People here who are still too raw from the election result are doing lots of talking in extremes (guess it makes them feel better?)so I'll just bow out. Not worth hard feelings, as not one person here no matter where they are from can change a damn thing in regard to the election result's.
i mean seriously... is a 5 vegas series A really a $16 stick? Its good but not $16 worth of good. I woulndt buy it at that price, and neither will anyone else. its an artificially high price.
and if we have universal health care why would we need SCHIP anyway?
I have NO DOUBT in my mind that the market would have reacted in exactly or at least very closely the same way even if McCain had been elected...
You'll see the market coming back up soon... and then no doubt it'll go back down, and so on and so on probably for the next year or so at LEAST...
As most? of you know I was a cigarette smoker for many years... (up until about 7 years ago or so)
I remember many times when there were talks of increased taxes on cigarettes... People were all in an uproar and everyone I knew that smoked talked about how they were gonna quit if it went through, etc...
None of them did... I remember when I was smoking cigarettes were like $1.25 - $1.50 a pack... When I quit I think it was around $2.25... Now they're what?? $4.50 or something ridiculous like that? And yet people still smoke every day... People still START smoking every day....
Granted theirs a certain level of "addiction" with cigarettes that isn't present in a cigar, but seriously...
Even if it DOES pass...
Even if it IS $10 per cigar...
Are you really telling me you'll give up smoking cigars forever? Once your current stock runs out you'll never buy anymore???
You might not like it, but you're probably not gonna quit...
Look at the tax rate on tobacco in CA... And yet people still buy cigars there every day...
Do you have any idea how many people I heard WAY back when gas was still like $1.70 a gallon and rising quickly saying that if gas ever went above $2 a gallon that they would stop driving and just start biking to work?
Know how many of them did? They STILL drive to work every day even when they were paying WELL over $4 a gallon...
Your current outlay is $0.05 per cigar, so at most you're looking at a tax hike of $2.95 per cigar. That's enough to make me reduce my purchasing, and probably stock up now and try agin
its as simple as price VS demand. when the price goes UP on something the demand goes DOWN
and as far as cigarettes going up... I too used to smoke cigarettes. one of the reasons i quit when i did whas because there was a TAX HIKE on them and it wasnt worthit to me. yes people still smoke. yes people still start to smoke, but if you look at it in the long term, as taxes have been going up in the past few decades, the number of people smoking have gone down.
that and the "addiction" factor for cigars is very small. its a luxury item that most dont need. the price goes up and even more people dont buy them. will i give up cigars if the tax passes, probably not, but i will cut down VERY significantly. cigars are expensive enough as it is, and with my upcoming tax increase (thanks obama!) this is just a nother pile of BS that i have to deal with.
even you duty, said you will cut back on the amount of cigars you purchase. the phenomenon will be enough that they will not generate the revenue they thought they would... so they will raise the tax again to "make up for it"
it just doesnt seem to make any sense to raise the price of things via taxation in a time when everyone feels that things are "too expensive" to begin with.
Also, with respect to the arguments about gas prices, we have definitely seen the high prices affect driving habits. I cancelled a climbing trip this summer due to the gas crisis. I work from home 4 days per week now, and three of my team members work from home full time. Now, as gas prices have gone down, I am still reluctant to do much driving because I have grown accustomed to these new habits. This is the reason I posted that story about the demise of OPEC. Core demand has been forever impacted, even if gas prices come back down.
You would see a similar effect with cigars. There is a threshold for everything that, once crossed, it begins to change behavior. The curve is never as simple as they teach you in Econ 101, although that's a great place to start. It tends to be influenced by psychological thresholds (i.e. $4.00/gallon instead of $3.95), social trends, and the availability of alternatives. So if we apply that logic to the cigar tax, you'll clearly cross a large number of psychological thresholds (5 Vegas Classic Torpedo would now cost $7+), and the nationwide social trend is seeing a steady decrease in smoking. You'll likely see people turning to legal alternatives (liquor) and illegal alternatives (drugs).
But I still don't object to the tax.
why support a program that will do no good and personally effect you and an industry that you love negatively?
I am only saying that a tobacco tax alone will not be sufficient to fund this program. But I don't agree that we should abandon that tax altogether for that reason, and further destroy the budget for this program.
i bet it would be way more than a 15%. drop. maybe not 98% but a 15% drop in sales in any industry is fairly drastic. most industries would have many many closures, failures, fewer raises, and job cuts. and thats what this economy needs too.
How many sticks per year of a reduction in sales do you think we'll see? 70%? If 70% fewer cigars are sold on an annual basis, we would still see a 1700% increase in annual tax revenue from cigars at $3/stick. I think it is unlikely we'd see anything greater than a 15% reduction in sales, but even at 25% we're still seeing an increase of 4400% in annual cigar tax revenue.
i dont get that mentality at all.
in a time when it seems like everyone is complaining that we are paying too much for everything and that inflation is on the rise you guys are saying that artificially paying more for things is a good idea.
oh wait, its for the CHILDREN.... iduno...maybe if you wanna pay more taxes the government could set up some kind of account where people could pay extra and all of it would go for the children, maybe like a charity.
wait, hasnt that been done? yes it has.
if i remember correctly, only one person paid $12 (or some other nominal amount) into it.
i just feel that the government already takes to damn much out of my check and too much in sales tax as it is. they dont need anymore.
i do have an idea about taxes that i wanna share with all of you. ill start a new thread about that soon. its an idea that i have heard tossed about and that i have modified a bit. It would never happen... but again, debate is fun.